Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
