Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
